No joy for Thailand three years after coup

By AMBIKA AHUJA,Associated Press Writer
Friday, September 18

BANGKOK – Three years after a bloodless coup that was supposed to end months of bitter political turmoil and restore stability, Thailand is as divided and volatile as ever.

The Sept. 19, 2006, military takeover that toppled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was greeted with relief by many Thais, especially those who had been demonstrating to demand he step down for alleged abuse of power and disrespect to the crown.

That initial reprieve, however, was followed by the installation of a poorly regarded interim government; an election that returned Thaksin's allies to power and his opponents to the streets, to seize the seat of government and the capital's two airports; and two major riots in the streets of the capital. The instability has scared away foreign tourists and investors at a time when the economy is struggling through the world recession.

The country appears to be locked in an endless cycle of protest and counter-protest by Thaksin's supporters and opponents, even as Thaksin himself remains in self-imposed exile, but still able to rally his fans if only by phone. They will hold a rally this Saturday marking the coup's anniversary.

So insecure is the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, Thaksin's top rival, that it has invoked a special public security law to allow the military to restore order should the unrest again turn violent.

"The coup turned out to have been easier to execute than to manage. ... Thai politics three years after the coup has become more convoluted, and the stakes have increased," said Thitinan Pongsidhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Underlying the political wrangling is a growing anxiety about the eventual question of succession since the 81-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej has traditionally been the country's unifying figure. Government efforts to shut down debate over the future of the revered monarchy _ through arrests of critics and censorship of the Internet _ have only highlighted the problem.

"Everyone is positioning themselves, and we may see many realignments among the military, the traditional elite, the activists, and various interest groups to protect their interests and ensure the survival of their institutions at the expense of the country," said Charnvit Kasetsiri, one of Thailand's most prominent historians.

On one side are Thaksin's opponents among the Bangkok elite: assorted royalist groups, political activists, middle-class citizens, and elements of the military, many of whom felt their privileges under threat from Thaksin's populist brand of politics as well as his massive business empire. They also accuse the multimillionaire of trying to usurp the king's authority.

The other side includes anti-coup activists who resent the military's meddling in politics, and Thaksin's followers, especially among the poor who benefited from his policies. They often cast the turmoil as a class conflict, describing their foes as the "aristocracy."

Despite efforts to eradicate his influence by dismantling his political party, prosecuting him on corruption charges, freezing his assets and canceling his Thai passport, Thaksin's opponents have failed to dent his popularity among the marginalized poor. Thaksin's supporters demonstrated their faith by voting his political allies into power in a December 2007 election.

Thaksin was the first leader in modern Thai history to systematically address the concerns of the poor with a slew of social welfare plans.

Thaksin's 2001-2006 administration awakened the once-silent rural electorate who now feel that they, too, are stakeholders in the nation's future, analysts said.

"The top-down political submissiveness and contentment with status-quo of the past is gone," said Charnvit. "People are becoming more politically assertive and conscious of their influence."

But it was anti-Thaksin demonstrators who ruled the streets last year, adding to the pressure that eventually forced Thaksin's allies out of office and brought Abhisit to power. Their rivals have since taken a page from their book, staging their own big protests and calling for Abhisit's resignation.

Saturday's rally will see the anti-Abhisit demonstrators repeat their call for fresh elections, claiming that he came to power illegitimately with the help of the military and the judiciary, two pillars of the establishment.

Few expect Saturday's protest to be a tipping point, despite concerns raised by the government.

Analysts said the event is likely to pass without violence, and the possibility of another overt military intervention in the near term is unlikely, after the trouble and scorn their 2006 intervention brought.

But Abhisit's government appears to be at a loss over how to achieve political reconciliation, and Thaksin's supporters are split over how to coherently assert their demands for change.

"There are fewer and fewer options for people who want change, especially if the government continues to try to close the lid on them and pretend everything is well," Charnvit said. "This makes things dangerous and potentially explosive when the right moment comes."