PHNOM PENH, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Cambodia's economy, one of the fastest growing in Southeast Asia just two years ago, will probably contract by about 2.75 percent this year, hit hard by the slowdown in the United States, the IMF said on Wednesday. "The global economic crisis is having a larger impact on Cambodia's economy than previously anticipated," David Cowen, deputy division chief for the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific Department, told a news conference.
However, the economy will rebound next year with growth of 4.25 percent, added Cowen, who led a team that recently met with local finance officials as part of an IMF mission to Cambodia.
After decades of war and upheaval, including the Khmer Rouge "killing fields", Cambodia witnessed an unprecedented boom before the global financial crisis struck, its economy expanding at around 10 percent annually in the five years leading up to 2008.
The growth, fuelled mainly by garment manufacturing, tourism and real-estate development, came to an abrupt halt during the global recession. Garment export volumes are likely to fall by 15 percent this year, hit by the weak U.S. economy, Cowen said.
Tourist arrivals have fallen by double digits, Cowen said, noting that recent signs of improvement may reflect day-tripping arrivals from across the border rather than wealthier tourists from other parts of the world whose spending lifts the economy.
"Exports are contracting. So we are likely to see negative export growth in Cambodia in 2009. Imports are contracting at an even faster rate," he added, noting that some of that reflected falls in fuel prices.
"The overall level of petroleum imports will be down quite significantly this year," he said.
He expected annual inflation of more than 5 percent near the end of 2009, rising further to about 6 percent next year.
Even though the economy remains one of Asia's smallest, with gross domestic product of around $8.9 billion, international investment had been rising sharply, flowing heavily into the hotel sector, before reversing course in the financial crisis.
Foreign direct investment probably nearly halved to an estimated $490 million this year from $815 million in 2008, with the drop led mainly by construction investment, Cowen said.
Large construction projects have slowed, new project approvals are sharply lower and imports of construction materials are down significantly from last year, he added.
"There's negative growth in construction imports and negative growth in consumer imports."
Bank lending for property was also down, he said, following a real-estate boom that turned the once-sleepy capital into a building site.
But Cambodia's vast agricultural sector, which makes up about 34 percent of the economy, has held up well, with a good harvest expected this year.
And there's ample liquidity in the banking system.
"There has been healthy deposit growth in the system as a whole this year, in part due to very attractive term deposit rates that banks are paying in Cambodia. We have expressed some concern that these high deposit rates could have some impact on bank profitability going forward."
(Writing by Jason Szep; Editing by Alan Raybould)
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Drought could have destroyed ancient city
2009/09/23
AP
A PROLONGED and intense drought may have contributed to the demise of Cambodia’s great ancient city Angkor, an American researcher said .
Brendan M Buckley said bands on tree rings that he and his colleagues have examined show that Southeast Asia was hit by a severe drought from 1415 until 1439.
That would coincide with the time period during which many archeologists believe Angkor collapsed. From the city of famed temples, Angkorian kings ruled over most of Southeast Asia between the ninth and 14th centuries.
During that time, they oversaw construction of architectural stone marvels, including Angkor Wat, regarded as a marvel of religious architecture and designated as a World Heritage Site by Unesco.
“Given all the stress the Khmer civilisation was under due to political reasons and so forth, a drought of the magnitude we see in our records should have played a significant role in causing its demise,” said Buckley, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Tree-Ring Laboratory in New York. Scientists have a historical record of droughts with the thickness of a tree’s rings. Since trees grow more during wet periods, the rings will grow thicker at those times. Trees grow less in dry times, so those rings will be thinner.
While the 1431 invasion from Siam – now Thailand – has long been regarded as a major cause of Angkor’s fall, archaeologists working at the sprawling temple site have long suspected that ecological factors played a role. The Greater Angkor Project is run by the University of Sydney in collaboration with the French archaeological group Ecole Francaise d’Extreme Orient and Apsara, the body responsible for the management of the Angkor World Heritage Park. The project concluded in 2007 that ancient Angkor had become unwieldy and that efforts to expand rice production to support a population of one million had led to vast deforestation, top-soil degradation and erosion.
Last year, the group went further to show that the deforestation resulted in flooding and huge amounts of sediment clogging the network of canals that was at the heart of the city’s vital water management system.
Dan Penny, a University of Sydney researcher who is a director at the Greater Angkor Project, said the new findings on drought will help researchers gain a greater understanding of why Angkor collapsed.
“Angkor was a civilisation obsessed with managing water. It was an agrarian society,” Penny said. “It’s hard to imagine that a society like that could have shrugged off 20 or 30 years of drought.”
However, Penny said it was likely that the drought was more of a contributing factor to the kingdom’s demise than a driving force. Not only was it forced to contend with the impacts of deforestation, but also attacks from the Siamese and the Cham of southern Vietnam.
“We have these droughts occurring on top of pre-existing pressures,” Penny said.
“Climate change was an accelerant,” he said. “It’s like pouring petrol on a fire. It makes social and economic pressures that may have been endurable disastrous.”
AP
A PROLONGED and intense drought may have contributed to the demise of Cambodia’s great ancient city Angkor, an American researcher said .
Brendan M Buckley said bands on tree rings that he and his colleagues have examined show that Southeast Asia was hit by a severe drought from 1415 until 1439.
That would coincide with the time period during which many archeologists believe Angkor collapsed. From the city of famed temples, Angkorian kings ruled over most of Southeast Asia between the ninth and 14th centuries.
During that time, they oversaw construction of architectural stone marvels, including Angkor Wat, regarded as a marvel of religious architecture and designated as a World Heritage Site by Unesco.
“Given all the stress the Khmer civilisation was under due to political reasons and so forth, a drought of the magnitude we see in our records should have played a significant role in causing its demise,” said Buckley, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Tree-Ring Laboratory in New York. Scientists have a historical record of droughts with the thickness of a tree’s rings. Since trees grow more during wet periods, the rings will grow thicker at those times. Trees grow less in dry times, so those rings will be thinner.
While the 1431 invasion from Siam – now Thailand – has long been regarded as a major cause of Angkor’s fall, archaeologists working at the sprawling temple site have long suspected that ecological factors played a role. The Greater Angkor Project is run by the University of Sydney in collaboration with the French archaeological group Ecole Francaise d’Extreme Orient and Apsara, the body responsible for the management of the Angkor World Heritage Park. The project concluded in 2007 that ancient Angkor had become unwieldy and that efforts to expand rice production to support a population of one million had led to vast deforestation, top-soil degradation and erosion.
Last year, the group went further to show that the deforestation resulted in flooding and huge amounts of sediment clogging the network of canals that was at the heart of the city’s vital water management system.
Dan Penny, a University of Sydney researcher who is a director at the Greater Angkor Project, said the new findings on drought will help researchers gain a greater understanding of why Angkor collapsed.
“Angkor was a civilisation obsessed with managing water. It was an agrarian society,” Penny said. “It’s hard to imagine that a society like that could have shrugged off 20 or 30 years of drought.”
However, Penny said it was likely that the drought was more of a contributing factor to the kingdom’s demise than a driving force. Not only was it forced to contend with the impacts of deforestation, but also attacks from the Siamese and the Cham of southern Vietnam.
“We have these droughts occurring on top of pre-existing pressures,” Penny said.
“Climate change was an accelerant,” he said. “It’s like pouring petrol on a fire. It makes social and economic pressures that may have been endurable disastrous.”
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
By March 2009, 4.3 Million Mobile Subscribers (penetration 29%) Were Recorded In Cambodia
New report provides detailed analysis of the Telecommunications market
Published on September 21, 2009
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
Cambodia - Telecoms, Mobile, Internet & Forecasts
Despite its status as a least developed country and remaining one of the poorer countries in Southeast Asia, Cambodia’s efforts to expand and upgrade its telecom infrastructure are bearing fruit. There was very little infrastructure remaining from before the tumultuous Khmer Rouge days. As a result, Cambodia bypassed rebuilding the fixed-line market and quickly launched into alternative technologies, jump-starting its telecommunications infrastructure with digital technology. Not surprisingly, mobile services have completely overwhelmed the market. By early 2009, there were nine mobile operators vigorously competing with each other in a market segment that was growing at an annual rate of more than 50%. There were 4.3 million mobile subscribers (penetration 29%) in the country by March 2009. The market was still in a very strong growth phase, as evidenced by the keenness shown by foreign operators seeking to be part of it.
Some limited fixed-line growth had earlier come about through investment under foreign assistance, but this has mainly benefited Phnom Penh and geographical coverage has not increased significantly since that effort in the 1990s. The number of fixed-line services was relatively static at around 40,000 by 2008. In the absence of any real fixed-line growth, mobile telephone services continue to completely dominate the overall telecom market in Cambodia, with mobiles representing more than 99% of the total number of telephone services in the country. This disparity has been growing more significant each year.
The expansion of Internet services has also been overshadowed by the mobile phenomenon. In fact Internet take-up remains disturbingly low, one of the lowest penetrations in the region. Of course, the limited fixed line infrastructure has been a major inhibiting factor in the roll-out of both dial-up and ADSL Internet services. One encouraging feature has been the general availability of Internet access in provincial towns.
It is worthwhile noting that wireless technology has been especially advantageous for Cambodia in achieving rapid network rollout and replacement of a fixed network badly damaged by 20 years of war. In addition to the thriving mobile networks, Wireless Local Loop has been useful for rapid provision of a limited number of fixed-line services. However, while Cambodia has exemplified the fact that WLL offers a viable option for rapidly expanding telecom access in developing countries with low levels of fixed infrastructure, the potential of this technology has yet to be fully exploited in the country.
Key highlights:
The year 2008 saw Cambodia’s mobile market continue on its positive expansion path, with annual growth of 56% for the year and continuing at 50%+ into 2009;
With 29% mobile penetration by March 2009, the mobile market had passed the 4 million subscriber milestone earlier in 2009;
With 3 new mobile operators coming to the market in 2008/09, Cambodia has a total of 9 operators in what has become a crowded and highly competitive market;
The development of fixed-line and Internet services continue to languish; the latter is particularly disconcerting as online access is crucial to national growth;
On the broader political front, National Assembly elections were held in 2008, with Hun Sen being returned to power; while the elections were generally regarded as credible, deficiencies remain.
This report provides an overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications markets in Cambodia. Subjects covered include:
Key Statistics;
Market and Industry Overviews;
Major Operators (Mobile and Fixed)
Regulatory Environment;
Infrastructure;
Mobile Market;
Internet Market;Telecom market forecasts for selective years to 2018.
Cambodia - Telecoms, Mobile, Internet & Forecasts: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=MS6ACE94T157551
Published on September 21, 2009
by Press Office
(Companiesandmarkets.com and OfficialWire)
LONDON, ENGLAND
Cambodia - Telecoms, Mobile, Internet & Forecasts
Despite its status as a least developed country and remaining one of the poorer countries in Southeast Asia, Cambodia’s efforts to expand and upgrade its telecom infrastructure are bearing fruit. There was very little infrastructure remaining from before the tumultuous Khmer Rouge days. As a result, Cambodia bypassed rebuilding the fixed-line market and quickly launched into alternative technologies, jump-starting its telecommunications infrastructure with digital technology. Not surprisingly, mobile services have completely overwhelmed the market. By early 2009, there were nine mobile operators vigorously competing with each other in a market segment that was growing at an annual rate of more than 50%. There were 4.3 million mobile subscribers (penetration 29%) in the country by March 2009. The market was still in a very strong growth phase, as evidenced by the keenness shown by foreign operators seeking to be part of it.
Some limited fixed-line growth had earlier come about through investment under foreign assistance, but this has mainly benefited Phnom Penh and geographical coverage has not increased significantly since that effort in the 1990s. The number of fixed-line services was relatively static at around 40,000 by 2008. In the absence of any real fixed-line growth, mobile telephone services continue to completely dominate the overall telecom market in Cambodia, with mobiles representing more than 99% of the total number of telephone services in the country. This disparity has been growing more significant each year.
The expansion of Internet services has also been overshadowed by the mobile phenomenon. In fact Internet take-up remains disturbingly low, one of the lowest penetrations in the region. Of course, the limited fixed line infrastructure has been a major inhibiting factor in the roll-out of both dial-up and ADSL Internet services. One encouraging feature has been the general availability of Internet access in provincial towns.
It is worthwhile noting that wireless technology has been especially advantageous for Cambodia in achieving rapid network rollout and replacement of a fixed network badly damaged by 20 years of war. In addition to the thriving mobile networks, Wireless Local Loop has been useful for rapid provision of a limited number of fixed-line services. However, while Cambodia has exemplified the fact that WLL offers a viable option for rapidly expanding telecom access in developing countries with low levels of fixed infrastructure, the potential of this technology has yet to be fully exploited in the country.
Key highlights:
The year 2008 saw Cambodia’s mobile market continue on its positive expansion path, with annual growth of 56% for the year and continuing at 50%+ into 2009;
With 29% mobile penetration by March 2009, the mobile market had passed the 4 million subscriber milestone earlier in 2009;
With 3 new mobile operators coming to the market in 2008/09, Cambodia has a total of 9 operators in what has become a crowded and highly competitive market;
The development of fixed-line and Internet services continue to languish; the latter is particularly disconcerting as online access is crucial to national growth;
On the broader political front, National Assembly elections were held in 2008, with Hun Sen being returned to power; while the elections were generally regarded as credible, deficiencies remain.
This report provides an overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications markets in Cambodia. Subjects covered include:
Key Statistics;
Market and Industry Overviews;
Major Operators (Mobile and Fixed)
Regulatory Environment;
Infrastructure;
Mobile Market;
Internet Market;Telecom market forecasts for selective years to 2018.
Cambodia - Telecoms, Mobile, Internet & Forecasts: http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/r.ashx?id=MS6ACE94T157551
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